Trade Tensions, Election Uncertainty Cool Canada’s Housing Market

A late spring rebound offered encouraging signs of improvement in Canada’s housing market following a slower start to the year. However, stalled trade talks and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on buyer confidence throughout the summer, keeping many prospective homebuyers on the sidelines and limiting sales activity. These conditions have carried into the fall, contributing to a slower start to what is typically one of the busiest seasons of the year for real estate.

According to the Royal LePage® House Price Survey and Market Forecast, the aggregate price of a home in Canada decreased a modest 0.8% year over year to $810,000 in the third quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the national aggregate home price dipped 0.6%.

“The Canadian housing market has spent the past three months treading water, with home prices largely flat and national sales volumes on track to finish 2026 slightly below even the sluggish pace of 2025,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Autumn, the second-busiest season of the year, typically injects energy into the market. This year, economic uncertainty and concern that mortgage rates could move materially higher are keeping would-be buyers on the sidelines.

“With more homes to choose from and little pressure to act quickly, buyers can afford to wait – and uncertainty gives them a reason to. Yet, buyers have advantages that were hard to imagine during the pandemic-era frenzy. Prices have retreated from their peaks in most markets, and a larger selection of homes for sale gives buyers more time, more choice and greater negotiating power. After years in which scarce housing inventory forced buyers to compete fiercely, today’s market offers room to be selective. The opportunity is there; the confidence to act remains elusive.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 65 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.5% year over year to $856,500, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.5% to $571,900. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

Trade tensions weigh on summer market

Widespread anxiety and uncertainty over ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. continue to hamper confidence in the economy and, by extension, Canada’s real estate market. 

“Global economic turbulence and escalating trade tensions with our neighbours to the south continue to weigh on buyer psychology,” said Soper. “Canadians’ confidence in buying and selling real estate is obviously tightly linked to the perceived stability of the country’s relationship with our closest trading partner. For many buyers, the hesitation is less about what they can afford today than how secure they feel about tomorrow. Buyers have more negotiating power, but little control over the forces shaping their confidence.”

The U.S.-Canada trade dispute escalated sharply in late summer. On August 21st, negotiations between the two countries broke down, with no further talks scheduled. The following day, the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on billions of dollars in Canadian goods, hitting a range of products including wine, furniture, dairy, cement and clothing, on top of existing levies on key export industries, like automotive, steel, aluminum and lumber. Ottawa responded with a series of counter-tariffs, prompting the U.S. to declare an import ban on certain Canadian products, including alcohol, motorcycles and select dairy items. While the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) remains in force until 2036, it has entered a heightened period of uncertainty and is now subject to an annual review. 

Meanwhile, the federal government continues to take steps to reduce Canada’s reliance on the U.S., diversify international trade opportunities and attract new investment in the country’s infrastructure, energy and technology sectors. 

“Efforts to attract investment and strengthen trading relationships beyond the United States are encouraging steps toward a more resilient Canadian economy,” noted Soper. “Diversification cannot immediately offset the damage from American trade actions, but it can reduce our vulnerability over time. For housing, the promise is straightforward: as Canadians gain confidence in the country’s economic prospects, they gain confidence in their own financial security. Turning that promise into investment and jobs will help give buyers a reason to move forward.”

Political uncertainty keeps buyers cautious

Canada’s busy political calendar is adding another layer of uncertainty to the housing outlook. Municipal elections underway across several provinces, the recent election of a minority government in Quebec, and a referendum on Alberta’s future within Canada give families much to consider beyond borrowing costs and home prices.

“Elections can give buyers and sellers reason to pause while they assess what a change in government might mean for them,” said Soper. “This fall, some of the questions facing voters go well beyond tax policy or housing programs. A home is a long-term commitment to a community. Uncertainty about the future of that community, or the province’s place in Canada, can make buyers reluctant to put down roots.”

Third quarter press release highlights:

• The Greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded year over year declines of 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively, in Q3. Prices continue to stabilize on a quarterly basis. 
• The Greater Montreal Area recorded an increase of 2.9% year over year; modest uptick of 0.5% over Q2.
• Regional markets across the Prairie provinces proved to be more stable, resilient this summer.
• Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised downward following a slower-than-expected third quarter.

Thinking About Selling?

At the Dan Cooper Group, we provide a complimentary, no-obligation home evaluation that includes:

• What renovations are worth doing
• What to avoid
• How to position your home for maximum value
• A clear pricing and marketing strategy tailored to your property

If you’re considering selling and want to understand how to maximize your home’s value, we’re here to help.