GTA Market Strengthens as Inventory Falls Year Over Year

The GTA housing market has been on a four month winning streak, at least when it comes to the average sales price. Property values are up $96,411 since the January low. After sizeable monthly gains in both February and April, May produced a more modest price increase of 1.69 per cent, resulting in an average sales price of $1,069,700, the highest average sales price since June 2025. Inventory remains elevated, with 26,927 active listings, a 7 per cent monthly increase. Most notably, however, inventory has declined by 13 per cent year over year. When comparing the current level of active inventory to historical norms for the month of May, inventory is 53 per cent above the average, a data point that had been north of 60 per cent in previous months. Sales increased by 11 per cent month over month, resulting in 6,583 properties put under contract during the month, the largest cumulative sales total since October 2024.

“Spring sales have been stronger than last year, reflecting improved affordability stemming from lower selling prices and borrowing costs. Sales are forecast to improve further as we move through the second half of this year. Recovery would be further bolstered by positive news on the trade front along with an easing of geopolitical tensions and related uncertainty,” said TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld.

The detached segment experienced a marginal decline of 1 per cent after posting gains in each of the three preceding months, resulting in an average sales price of $1,358,131. Active listings increased to 12,255 homes for sale to conclude the month, up 10 per cent monthly, but down 11 per cent on a yearly comparison. Sales increased significantly, rising 17 per cent month over month and 8 per cent year over year, resulting in 3,236 transactions. This marked the first month detached sales exceeded 3,000 since June 2025.

Condo sales prices were flat month over month, producing an average sales price of $639,468. While monthly sales prices were largely unchanged, the yearly price comparison shows a decrease of 6 per cent. Active listings totalled 8,704, a modest monthly increase of 4 per cent, though the yearly total indicates a 17 per cent decline in active listings. Every month of 2026 has resulted in year over year declines in total active condo listings. Sales stalled during the month, with 1,535 transactions representing a 1 per cent monthly decline.

Townhomes experienced a more pronounced pullback of 2 per cent, producing an average sales price of $916,474, the third lowest average sales price since 2021. Overall active listings increased by 4 per cent monthly, while decreasing by 13 per cent yearly, for a total of 1,991 townhomes for sale. Sales increased to 663 transactions, marking a monthly uptick of 17 per cent.

Semi detached properties had the largest monthly sales price increase, rising 3 per cent to an average sales price of $1,067,672. Inventory increased to 1,452 active listings, a monthly gain of 10 per cent, while remaining down 14 per cent year over year. Sales increased by 8 per cent monthly, with 608 properties put under contract during the month.

“Inventory levels trended lower over the past year, but buyers continued to have substantial negotiating power through the spring, helping with affordability. Looking ahead, if sales strengthen further relative to listings, selling prices will level off and even start to grow as we move into 2027,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.

Overall, the May data points to a GTA market that is continuing to regain price momentum, while still offering buyers a healthy level of selection. Inventory has ticked higher on a monthly basis as the spring market brought more listings to market, but the yearly comparison tells a different story, with active listings still down meaningfully from last year. With sales posting a strong monthly increase and prices now rising for four consecutive months, the market appears to be moving into the summer with improving demand, gradually tightening inventory conditions, and a firmer pricing backdrop than earlier in the year.

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