GTA Housing Market Shows Signs of Recovery Amidst High Inventory and Improved Affordability

Through the first half of 2025, two key takeaways have emerged: listings remain elevated at the highest levels in well over a decade, and buyers, while still somewhat cautious, are now facing some of the most favourable conditions seen in years. Economic uncertainty and ongoing tariff fluctuations have paused the interest rate declines that began earlier in the year, but the fundamentals have shifted in buyers’ favour. With prices holding relatively steady and supply at multi-year highs, opportunities are quietly emerging across the Greater Toronto Area. 

Home sales across the Greater Toronto Area saw their strongest results for the month of July since 2021, with 6,100 transactions - an annual increase of 10.9 per cent over July 2024. Economic uncertainty and ongoing tariff impacts have paused the interest rate declines that began earlier in the year, but the fundamentals have shifted in buyers’ favour. With prices holding relatively steady and supply at multi-year highs, opportunities are quietly emerging across the Greater Toronto Area.

While demand continues to improve, the supply side showed a notable shift. New listings decreased in July compared to June. Active inventory remained historically high, about 30,215 properties, up 26 per cent from July 2024. Although June had peaked around 31,600 listings, levels remained near record highs into July. 

Meanwhile, home values edged lower in July, with the average sale price falling by 5.5 per cent year-over-year, while the average selling price dropped 4.5 per cent to $1,051,719 compared to June 2025. 

As the GTA market searches for its next footing, many prospective buyers may eventually look back at the current environment as a window of opportunity. In a recent BNN interview, Royal LePage Canada President and CEO Phil Soper commented that Canadians currently looking to purchase a home may be in for a pleasant surprise, as many real estate markets across the country are seeing improved affordability. He noted, “Depending on the quarter, if you look over the last three years, wages and salaries have been 50 per cent and 100 per cent, or double, the long-term norm. Whereas, if you go back over the last three years, home prices are off in aggregate maybe 11 per cent… so, we’ve had home prices declining, the cost of borrowing declining and wages and salaries stronger than typical; it’s an affordability window we haven’t seen in the country since the mid-90s.”

The sentiment that now could be seen as a good time to enter the market seems to be echoed by Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Elechia Barry-Sproule: “Improved affordability, brought about by lower home prices and borrowing costs, is starting to translate into increased home sales. More relief is required, particularly where borrowing costs are concerned, but it’s clear that a growing number of households are finding affordable options for homeownership,” Barry-Sproule said. 

Although sales activity is now recovering, this healthy level of inventory is sufficient to keep home prices trending sideways over the short term as supply and demand remain relatively balanced. However, if the recovery in sales activity accelerates, these favourable conditions for home buyers may begin slowly slipping away, as inventory levels decline and home sellers gain more bargaining power.

Condominiums in the GTA averaged $651,483 in July, as active listings remain high at 10,013. This has created real value opportunities for buyers in the condo segment. Sales totalled 1,576 units, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

Townhome values declined by 7.4 per cent, with the average sales price settling at $849,380, while inventory remains elevated, with 2,257 properties listed for sale. Sales activity increased, rising 5.3 percent from June to a total of 596 transactions.

Semi-detached properties had an average sales price of $1,041,359. Inventory fell to 1,690 active listings, while sales remained well below historical norms, with 596 transactions in July, 0.8 per cent lower than June 2025.



Detached prices dipped 2.2 per cent to an average of $1,361,660, compared to June 2025. Inventory increased to 13,676, representing a 3.3 per cent monthly decrease, but still 11.3% per cent higher than July 2024. Sales have remained consistent over the past three months, with 2,998 sales in May and 3,011 in June and 2,795 in July. 

While it remains too early to call this a full-fledged recovery, the Greater Toronto Area housing market continues to show notable improvement. While listings also increased, the pace was slower, indicating a modest tightening of market conditions. For buyers, lower home prices and borrowing costs have contributed to improved affordability, prompting more households to enter the market. With affordability metrics improving and interest rates holding, the second half of 2025 could mark a decisive period for those waiting on the sidelines.

TRREB officials emphasized the role of the housing sector in supporting economic growth amid broader economic uncertainty, and highlighted the potential positive impact of further interest rate cuts and selective foreign buyer activity.

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